Post by royalcrown on Feb 19, 2019 11:46:40 GMT -5
Here are the remaining schedules for the three teams still in (reasonable) pursuit of the regular season SEC championship:
UK: @mizzou, Auburn, Arkansas, @ut, @ole Miss, Florida
UT: Vandy, @lsu, @ole Miss, UK, Miss State, @auburn
LSU: Florida, UT, Texas A&M, @bama, @florida, Vandy
Using KenPom without adjusting for Home-and-Away the average ranking of opponents has UT having the most difficult schedule (37.5), UK is 2nd (40.33) and LSU with the (much) easier path (57.8). Both UT and LSU are statistically advantaged by having SEC bottom-dweller Vandy remaining on their schedule.
LSU also has the advantage of playing one more home game than both UK and UT.
Taking a critical look at the actual opponents and the location of each game you can reasonably say that both UK and LSU have two certain "wins" (Mizzou and Arkansas for UK, A&M and Vandy for LSU) while UT has only Vandy in the certain column (and that's a rivalry game).
All things considered - LSU has the inside track over the last 3 weeks of the season. Ya' gotta play them all and they never ALL pan out the way logic dictates........
UPDATED 2/21:
LSU took it on the chin in O.T., at home against Florida. Not a complete shock given the Tigers propensity to play close games. If UK survives Auburn on Saturday they will either be in a 3-way tie for 1st or in 2nd all by their lonesome.
UK: @mizzou, Auburn, Arkansas, @ut, @ole Miss, Florida
UT: Vandy, @lsu, @ole Miss, UK, Miss State, @auburn
LSU: Florida, UT, Texas A&M, @bama, @florida, Vandy
Using KenPom without adjusting for Home-and-Away the average ranking of opponents has UT having the most difficult schedule (37.5), UK is 2nd (40.33) and LSU with the (much) easier path (57.8). Both UT and LSU are statistically advantaged by having SEC bottom-dweller Vandy remaining on their schedule.
LSU also has the advantage of playing one more home game than both UK and UT.
Taking a critical look at the actual opponents and the location of each game you can reasonably say that both UK and LSU have two certain "wins" (Mizzou and Arkansas for UK, A&M and Vandy for LSU) while UT has only Vandy in the certain column (and that's a rivalry game).
All things considered - LSU has the inside track over the last 3 weeks of the season. Ya' gotta play them all and they never ALL pan out the way logic dictates........
UPDATED 2/21:
LSU took it on the chin in O.T., at home against Florida. Not a complete shock given the Tigers propensity to play close games. If UK survives Auburn on Saturday they will either be in a 3-way tie for 1st or in 2nd all by their lonesome.
